IR Experts Back Kamala Harris
"In the weeks since U.S. President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race on July 21, news outlets have focused on shifts in public opinion polls and election prediction markets. Pundits have weighed in on whether former U.S. President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will win in November, as well as what the consequences may be for U.S. foreign policy. The Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) Project at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, with support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, recently surveyed IR scholars at U.S. colleges and universities about these issues. The results reported below are based on responses from 379 IR experts, most of whom are political scientists, surveyed between July 18 and 23. Survey respondents were asked their opinions about a range of potential Democratic replacements if Biden left the race, as well as their estimation of the probability that these candidates might prevail in November. The survey was open when Biden announced he would withdraw from the race, but most responses came before his withdrawal from the race. The IR experts largely supported Harris and believed that she could win in November, even before public polls shifted in her favor—a preference that seems tied at least in part to concerns about how Trump would handle an international crisis."
